I strongly agree with Mr. Arun Jaitley and
would like to share his article on recent opinion polls. Don't forget to
share your views.
Two Different Agencies have conducted opinion polls in
relation to the 2014 General Elections. I am not a great believer in the
accuracy of the seat projections, particularly, if the same is conducted 3-4
months before the elections. However, since the agencies which have conducted
the polls have a certain level of credibility, it can only be assumed that at
this stage they are trying to catch the trend of the current level of the
public opinion.
The polls indicate that the BJP is the front-runner. The
highest that the BJP has ever had in the Lok Sabha elections is 183. The
current indications show that the Party may surpass this figure on its own
strength. Its current allies particularly the Shiv Sena and the Akali Dal also
seem to be doing well. The Congress Party appears to be nose-diving to its
lowest ever tally. Its tally in 2014 may actually be in two digits.
There will
be a significant difference between the front-runner and the Party coming second. There will be about 10 political Parties whose tally would
be between 5 to 25 seats. The possibility of all these parties joining hands is
impossible. The AIADMK and the DMK cannot be on the same side. The Trinamul
Congress and the Left cannot be on the same side. The BSP and the Samajwadi
Party cannot be together. Besides the BJP and the NDA Partners, some parties
which occupy the non-BJP and the non-Left space in their States appear to be
getting a significant tally. The AIADMK is poised to get a number of seats. The
TDP is re-emerging and consolidating its vote-bank. The BJD is substantially
holding on. The TMC is improving its current tally. The euphoria over the YSR
Congress has declined but it is still picking up some seats in the Seemandhra region
The JDU which recently positioned itself as an anti-BJP
Party after a 17 year alliance with the BJP appears to be on the decline. The
Lok Sabha defeat may even make the Bihar Government shaky. The UPA allies such
as the National Conference and the NCP
are conceding space in their states to their Opponents.
There is a significant increase in the BJP vote in TamilNadu
and Odisha. The Party’s vote in Assam is reasonably intact. The Party appears
to be going back in to double digits in States like Andhra Pradesh and West
Bengal. In the States of North and Central and West India, the strike rate of
BJP has significantly increased. The most significant factor in these opinion
polls has been that Narendra Modi's acceptability
as Prime Ministerial candidate is about 15 to 20 % higher than the BJP vote in
each state. His ability to pull the Party up in strong areas and contribute to
its vote percentage in the non-strong areas is evident. How else can we justify
the projected 17% vote share in Tamil Nadu and 25% in Odisha.
Who then forms the Government? Is there any other contender
other than the BJP and the NDA?
The possibility of smaller Parties cobbling up a group can
never provide a stable Government. In any case, their numbers don’t add up. The
Congress reduced to two digits can at best be the tail of any other alternative
alliance. It cannot be the nucleus of the alliance. A logical conclusion is
that a stable Government can only be the BJP led Government and the NDA. In
terms of these indications, it should lead to a Government of greater NDA which
Atalji had formed. A number of Parties who constituted the greater NDA are
poised to do well. The Greater NDA should in addition to the Existing NDA
parties comprise of regional Parties which occupy the Non-Congress space in
their States. Such a formation truly represents India’s federal politics.
In the run-up to the Elections, decisive leadership, revival
of the economy, and removal of corruption appear to be the key issues. These
opinion polls have indicated that a stable Government will also be the key
issue weighing on the minds of the people.
Who else except the BJP and the
greater NDA can provide a stable Government ?
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